Big last quarter

Just yesterday I wrote of my fears that the shop would be forced to close this week. At the moment of writing, about 24 hours ago, I faced a bill I was sceptical I could meet by tomorrow morning’s deadline. 24 hours later, with almost a full day of trading still ahead, I can report that we’re safe for another week.

I was in a similar position last week, and had a barnstorming weekend to save the day. We’re only halfway through this weekend, but the situation is the same – in fact this weekend looks likely to top last week. In footballing parlance, we’ve gone into the last quarter 6 goals down and with a cross-breeze. Last week, and looks like this week, we’ve responded with a 8 goal last quarter to win the match against the odds.

From a purely technical viewpoint it’s curious and difficult to understand. It’s quiet through the week Monday to Friday. We’d be about 40% down on the recent average. The weekends are entirely different. The weekend has always been our best days, but given the trail off during the week you might expect something of the same on the weekend, but that’s certainly not being the case.

We’re currently above our weekend average the last couple of weeks. Not by a lot – maybe 15%, but it’s against trend, thankfully.

Put another way, the long term rule of thumb is the takings Monday to Thursday would double by Sunday. That’s now changed. The last couple of weeks you could double the takings up to Friday, and still be short a few hundred dollars. Right now we’re taking about 60% of our income over the weekend. Good in a way, but it keeps it interesting to the end.

Why this is the case is a bit of a mystery. We’re in the middle of a split-round of footy, which may be a factor. Weather has been very nice also, but not just on the weekends. Another possible reason is that I’ve finally got all my best therapists working over the weekend. That’s been very well received, and will guarantee more business – but the timing of it doesn’t match the business improvement.

If someone could come up with an algorithm that normalises the vagaries and predicts the retail patterns they’d make a fortune. I suppose I should just accept it. It encourages me though. I tend to think when the correction comes it will be that the weekdays will lift towards, or past, the previous average. If that happens in combination with the improved weekends then I’m looking at $1K plus extra every week – just as I’m selling.

Anyways. What this means now is that I live to fight another day. Touch wood.



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